The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has praised Uganda for its effective intervention policies that have facilitated a robust economic recovery following the COVID-19 pandemic. In its 2024 Article IV consultation report, the IMF highlighted that key indicators of business health remain within government targets, showcasing the resilience of the Ugandan economy.

The IMF’s Executive Board noted the country’s impressive performance characterized by low inflation, strong agricultural production, and vibrant activity in both industrial and service sectors. The report emphasized that Uganda’s economic recovery is gaining momentum, with the anticipated start of oil production in late 2025 expected to further enhance growth and improve fiscal stability.

However, the IMF also cautioned about potential risks that could hinder progress, including the ongoing repercussions of the Anti-Homosexuality Act, which complicates external financing conditions, as well as possible delays in oil production and climate-related challenges.

Despite these positive developments, the IMF pointed out that Uganda’s real per capita income gap compared to other emerging and developing economies continues to widen. Additionally, a decline in external buffers poses risks to Uganda’s ability to manage future economic shocks. In response, the Bank of Uganda plans to bolster its foreign exchange reserves by purchasing gold from local artisanal miners.

The report also addressed issues in accessing commercial bank credit, noting that banks prefer to lend to the government due to low-risk securities, leaving the private sector struggling to obtain affordable credit necessary for business expansion and job creation. As investors look to the IMF’s assessments for guidance, Uganda’s economic trajectory remains a focal point for both opportunity and caution.