Museveni’s 7th term bid raises fears of violence in Uganda

Summary:

• Uganda faces growing concerns of violence ahead of its 2026 elections as President Yoweri Museveni seeks a seventh term after 40 years in power. Rights groups warn of potential “mass atrocities,” citing crackdowns on opposition figures like Bobi Wine and rising political tension fueled by Museveni’s son, Muhoozi Kainerugaba. The opposition accuses the government of using violence to suppress dissent, while the ruling party denies the claims. International observers urge vigilance as fears of unrest escalate.

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Uganda is bracing for what could be one of its most contentious elections yet, as President Yoweri Museveni seeks a seventh term in office. Rights groups and international observers have expressed concerns over rising political violence, suppression of opposition voices, and inflammatory rhetoric from senior government figures, all of which could lead to “mass atrocities.”

Museveni, 80, who has ruled Uganda since 1986, launched a voter registration drive last week in preparation for the January 12, 2026, polls. However, the opposition fears the election will be marred by violence and intimidation, a continuation of the trends observed in the 2021 elections. During that vote, hundreds of opposition supporters were reportedly detained, disappeared, or killed, particularly those aligned with musician-turned-politician Bobi Wine, whose real name is Robert Kyagulanyi.

Opposition Under Siege

Bobi Wine, who has faced multiple arrests and survived alleged assassination attempts, has expressed little hope for a fair election in 2026. “As the opposition, we’ve experienced the most horrific treatment from the government and know they can do worse, including killing me. We don’t expect these elections to be any better,” Wine told AFP.

Wine accused Museveni of using violence to maintain power, stating that the president’s government lacks legitimacy and is widely disliked by Ugandans. Despite the threats, Wine vowed to continue the struggle for a democratic Uganda.

The atmosphere has been further inflamed by comments from Museveni’s son and heir apparent, Muhoozi Kainerugaba. In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), Kainerugaba threatened Wine directly, stating, “If Mzee [Museveni] was not there, I would cut off his head today.” Wine dismissed the threat as rhetoric but noted it reflected the regime’s broader capacity for violence.

A Pattern of Crackdowns

Other opposition figures have also faced severe repercussions. Kizza Besigye, a former presidential candidate, was allegedly kidnapped in Kenya in November and forcibly returned to Uganda, where he now faces treason charges that carry the death penalty. In another incident, 36 members of the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), an opposition party, were abducted while attending a seminar in Kenya and are now facing terrorism charges in Uganda.

George Kanyeihamba, a former supreme court judge, has described violence as a “part and parcel” of elections under Museveni. He believes only a “miracle” can ensure a peaceful election in 2026.

Growing Tensions and International Concern

The US-based Holocaust Memorial Museum has warned of potential “mass atrocities” around the election. In a recent report, the organization highlighted the growing uncertainty about Uganda’s political future after Museveni’s eventual departure and disputes over corruption, inadequate public services, and mismanagement of natural resources as key drivers of unrest.

Ashleigh Landau, the report’s author, noted that the government’s harsh response to protests is a significant factor in escalating violence. “If protests grow larger, the government may perceive Bobi Wine as a greater threat and respond with even more severe crackdowns,” she said.

Ruling Party Denial

Emmanuel Dombo, spokesperson for the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM), has denied all allegations of violence, stating that the government and the NRM have consistently promoted peaceful elections. “Our opponents are the ones promoting messages of violence,” Dombo claimed.

Despite these assurances, the opposition and human rights groups remain skeptical, pointing to past incidents of state-sponsored violence and repression.